PLOS Computational Biology

Forecasting influenza hospitalizations informs public health preparedness, yet questions remain about which types of forecasts best guide action. We evaluate categorical trend forecasts, which communicate probabilities of upcoming increases or decreases in epidemic trajectories, submitted to CDC's FluSight Forecasting Challenge between Fall-2024 and Spring-2026. Teams submitted probability distributions over five categories describing direction and magnitude of week-over-week changes in laboratory-confirmed influenza hospital admissions. We assessed performance using Ranked Probability Skill Score, Brier Skill Score, and measures of forecast-observation agreement. Most models outperformed an equal-probability baseline; the FluSight ensemble ranked among the top three in the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons. Forecasts were most accurate during stable periods and least during periods of rapid change, with most models underestimating observed trends. Conclusions were robust to choice of scoring metric and reference model. These results support categorical trend ensembles as an approach to communicating infectious disease forecasts that may inform public health decision-making.

Alzheimer's disease is characterized by the accumulation and aggregation of amyloid-{beta}(A{beta}), but the molecular mechanisms linking environmental and infectious factors to A$\beta$ conformational changes remain incompletely understood. Herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) has been proposed as a potential contributor to AD pathology, and interactions between the viral glycoprotein B (gB) and A$\beta$ may influence the conformational behaviour of the peptide. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations provide atomic-scale information on such interactions, but conventional structural descriptors may not fully capture changes in the organization of residue interaction networks. Here, we introduce a graph-geometric framework based on Forman-Ricci curvature to characterize the evolution of residue interaction networks during MD simulations. Each simulation frame is represented as a residue interaction graph based on C--C contacts, and residue-wise curvature profiles are analysed across time. We apply the framework to A{beta}1-42 in isolation and in complex with HSV-1 gB. Conventional MD analyses indicate stable association of the simulated complex, favourable interaction energetics, and conformational changes in A{beta}, including a transition from -helical structure toward {beta}-turn-rich conformations over the simulated timescale. Forman-Ricci curvature reveals pronounced and spatially localized remodelling of the A{beta} residue interaction network in the complex, with the strongest changes concentrated in the C-terminal region. These regions also exhibit reduced temporal curvature fluctuations and progressively distinct geometric behaviour throughout the simulation. Hierarchical clustering further identifies cooperative groups of residues with coordinated curvature dynamics, including a prominent C-terminal domain. Together, these results demonstrate that Forman-Ricci curvature provides a complementary description of biomolecular dynamics by capturing changes in the geometric organization of residue interaction networks that are not directly represented by conventional structural descriptors. The framework provides a general computational approach for studying network-level structural remodelling in protein molecular dynamics and offers a quantitative perspective on the conformational consequences of HSV-1 gB--A{beta} association.

Background. Whether predictors of intraoperative hypotension (IOH) add information beyond the mean arterial pressure (MAP) already displayed on the monitor is contested: selection bias in common evaluation designs inflates apparent performance, and the field has called for comparisons against simple MAP-based references under bias-resistant protocols. Existing predictors also depend on proprietary waveform analysis or pulse-contour monitors, restricting both deployment and external validation. Methods. Using 807 non-cardiac surgery patients from the open VitalDB database, we derived an additive gradient boosting model (one split per tree: a learned shape function per variable, no interactions) from three variables computable from an arterial line alone: current MAP, its drift from the patient's own 20-minute baseline, and the growth of its rolling variance (critical slowing down). Evaluation used patient-level 5-fold cross-validation under a strict protocol - exclusion of the 65-75 mmHg grey zone and of all samples already hypotensive at prediction time - with MAP alone (same learner class) as comparator. The frozen model was then validated, without any refitting, on an independent cohort from another continent (MOVER, University of California Irvine) following a pre-registered plan sealed before external data access. Results. In development the pressure-only model reached AUROC 0.907 vs. 0.884 for MAP alone (Delta AUROC +0.023, 95% CI +0.017 to +0.029) at 5 min, with +0.031 and +0.032 at 10 and 15 min, and good calibration (Brier skill +0.418 vs. prevalence). In external validation on 3,069 patients (442,194 samples, 1-minute charting, event prevalence 5.8%), the advantage not only transferred but was larger than in development: AUROC 0.696 vs. 0.638, Delta AUROC +0.058 (95% CI +0.051 to +0.064), meeting both pre-registered gates. Discrimination transferred; calibration did not (external Brier skill -0.014), requiring local recalibration. In the unrestricted scenario, where samples already at threshold are retained, the advantage collapsed (+0.007), reproducing the selection effect this paper documents. A secondary model adding pulse-contour cardiac output and stroke volume variation improved development discrimination further (Delta AUROC +0.035) but could be externally validated in only 39 patients, because those signals are rarely recorded. Conclusions. The dynamics of arterial pressure itself - drift from a patient-specific baseline and variance growth - carry predictive information beyond its current value, in a fully interpretable additive model that requires only an arterial line, no waveform access and no proprietary hardware. The advantage is confirmed in a pre-registered frozen-model external validation of over three thousand patients, and is largest at coarse recording cadence, where instantaneous pressure is least informative.

Mosquito-borne diseases pose a growing public health challenge as climate change reshapes vector population dynamics. West Nile virus (WNV), transmitted between birds and Culex mosquitoes, disproportionately affects Maricopa County, Arizona, one of the nation's highest-burden counties, yet whether models that include weather and avian dynamics improve forecast accuracy remains unclear. Using a 15-year weekly time series of mosquito abundance, mosquito infection prevalence, and human cases, we developed four mechanistic model configurations of varying complexity, from mosquito-human dynamics alone to full models incorporating avian dynamics and weather forcing. We fitted each model to the weekly-observed data, generated probabilistic 1- and 2-week-ahead forecast horizons, and evaluated forecasts against a historical baseline. All configurations fit the data equally regardless of weather or avian dynamics. However, models incorporating both birds and weather created more accurate forecasts of mosquito abundance and mosquito infection prevalence, and all configurations outperformed the baseline for forecasting human cases. Forecast accuracy was highest in summer and fall, and ensemble aggregation sometimes outperformed every individual model, stabilizing predictions across the 15-year record. These findings indicate that avian and weather dynamics are most critical for predicting mosquito-specific data, positioning this framework as a scalable tool for public health planning for WNV surveillance under climate change.

Vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates can vary widely between years and populations, even for the same vaccine. Estimated VE is known to be sensitive to susceptible depletion and differences in pre-vaccination infection risk between vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. However, how variation in pre-vaccination risk within and between the two groups affects VE estimates over time remains unclear. This uncertainty is especially important given negative VE estimates. We investigated the difference between estimated VE and true vaccine protection considering continuous distributions of pre-vaccination infection risk under three scenarios. When the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations differ in their mean risk, estimated VE can be higher or lower than true vaccine protection. Similar patterns arise when both populations share identical means but different risk distributions. Finally, if infection-derived immunity lasts longer than vaccine protection, annual VE estimates can vary by tens of percentage points between years despite constant true vaccine protection. These theoretical results underscore that VE studies estimate contrasting risk between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals in a particular time and place, and VE estimates can vary counterintuitively between years and populations even with constant vaccine-induced protection. Explaining variability in estimated VE thus requires a more complete understanding of populations' distributions of infection risk.

Aptamers are structured nucleic acid ligands capable of high affinity, high specificity molecular recognition generated using variations of the SELEX (Systematic Evolution of Ligands by Exponential Enrichment) process. However, SELEX often produces sequences that enrich yet may lack binding efficacy. We propose a measure called the Ruggedness Composite Index (RCI) along with a method for computing it, that can be used to distinguish binding-competent ('active') aptamers from weak or non-binding ('inactive') aptamers. Given a set of aptamers, RCI incorporates information on their fragmentation (landscape partitioning), basin entropy (metastable state distribution), cumulative density irregularity (non-uniform occupancy), and structural energy correlation length (structure-energy coupling scale). We test whether secondary-structure folding energy landscape topology distinguishes active from inactive aptamers using a multiscale level set framework across six datasets. Active aptamers show lower RCI values and occupy smoother, funnel-like conformational spaces, while inactive aptamers show higher RCI values, reflecting fragmented, high-entropy landscapes. By contrast, classical thermodynamic features, such as minimum free energy, show limited discrimination between active and inactive aptamers. In all datasets, sequences that exhibit enrichment which is not monotonic but lack specificity exhibit elevated ruggedness, indicating landscape topology can predict non-specific enrichment. These results indicate that folding landscape organization can be used as a predictor of aptamer activity and establish RCI as a simple, mechanistically interpretable measure for improving candidate prioritization, especially in therapeutic aptamer discovery.

Inappropriate antibiotic use presents a major global health challenge, particularly in low-resource settings where access to quality care is limited but antibiotics remain relatively unrestricted. This study estimates the causal effect of frontline primary care quality on inappropriate community antibiotic use, combining detailed community-based data from approximately 100 rural villages in rural China with an instrumental variable (IV) approach embedded within a double/debiased machine learning (DML) framework. We linked objective measures of village doctor clinical practice quality, measured through unannounced standardized patient visits, to household-level antibiotic use data collected from the same villages. To identify the causal effect, we constructed multiple candidate instruments from extensive provider characteristics and used an ensemble of machine learning algorithms within a flexible DML-IV framework to approximate an optimal instrument, addressing a many-weak-instruments problem. We found that improving village provider clinical practice quality reduced both antibiotic receipt during healthcare encounters for common diseases and household antibiotic storage for future self-medication. Our findings suggest that strengthening frontline primary care quality can meaningfully reduce inappropriate community antibiotic use without restricting access to essential treatment. More broadly, this study illustrates how causal machine learning can strengthen conventional causal estimation in complex observational settings in global health economics research.

In large data sets discovery is often limited to pre-conceived hypotheses and data fishing. Here we tested whether systematic exploration of AI generated hypotheses could uncover clinically meaningful signals in extensively studied data. We deployed AutoDiscovery, a newly launched large language model (LLM) framework designed to search for hypotheses based on surprisal and systematically interrogate complex datasets, on The Cancer Genome Atlas breast cancer cohort. The system did not identify clinically meaningful novel findings without human input. However, a seeded warm-start run with minimal text input from an oncologist revealed multiple interesting and surprising hypotheses. Among these was that a robust immune signature was present across all subtypes of invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC) that exceeded invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC). This observation was independently validated in independent cohorts and confirmed by high-sensitivity multi-immunofluorescence tumor tissue analyses. These results suggest immunotherapy approaches should be tested in ILC including early stage ER+HER2- ILC; these patients are currently excluded from large neoadjuvant immunotherapy trials. They further demonstrate that surprisal-based hypothesis generation frameworks can extract previously unappreciated patterns from deeply interrogated cancer datasets and imply that disease domain experts working with LLMs can derive more meaningful insights from complex data than either could achieve alone.

Summary: Prot2Surf is a software tool designed for the characterization and prediction of protein association to surfaces. In this application note, Prot2Surf was tested using catalytic domains of the lytic polysaccharide monooxygenases (LPMOs), interacting with native surfaces. The results show that the software can efficiently analyze key binding features, including protein-surface distances, distances between catalytically reactive atoms, and the orientation angle between surface chains and the protein. These features are essential for distinguishing productive binding poses in these protein-surface systems and for understanding interaction patterns that provide guidance on protein engineering. Prot2Surf performs these analyses within seconds to a few minutes, providing a fast and accessible framework to post-process and characterize protein-surface encounter complexes. Availability and implementation: Prot2Surf, which is written in Fortran90, is documented and freely available as open source on GitHub: https://github.com/TUNNELING-GROUP/Prot2Surf. In order to run Prot2Surf, users should also install the SDA software package which is freely available at https://www.h-its.org/downloads/sda7/.

The erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) is one of the most common and widely used laboratory diagnostic parameters in connection with inflammatory reactions and it is probable that every reader has already experienced a determination of their ESR. A rapid ESR is a non-specific parameter that provides information about the inflammatory process. Although the origins of this methodology date back to antiquity, the description of the process as the collapse of a percolating gel formed from erythrocytes has only recently been achieved. It was not yet known whether slow ESR has any medically relevant significance. Here we show a variety of clinical pictures that exhibit a systematically slow ESR (e.g., sickle cell disease, neuroacanthocytosis syndromes, chronic mountain sickness). Using a combination of measured data and physical modelling, we show how the accuracy and significance of ESR data can be increased. With this improved ESR (supraESR), we introduce a completely new, cost-effective diagnostic parameter, based on an established and easily automated measurement method, that enables low-cost screening for neuroacanthocytosis syndrome, a group of rare neurodegenerative diseases previously detectable only through complex diagnostic tests.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used by clinicians and patients for medical queries, yet their accuracy and safety at the specialist level in hematology remain insufficiently characterised. We benchmarked ten frontier proprietary and open-weight LLMs across two generations on 1,477 board-style hematology multiple-choice questions (MCQs) derived from five educational datasets spanning nine disease areas and six clinical skill domains, including text-only and multimodal case vignettes. Claude Opus 5 had the highest mean accuracy (92.7% text, 76.9% multimodal), followed closely by Gemini-3.1 Pro (91.4% and 78.7%), Gemini-3.6 Flash (91.0% and 74.8%) and GPT-5.6 Sol (89.9% and 76.7%). Accuracy significantly correlated with model size both for text-only and multimodal MCQs. Between model generations, the largest improvements in accuracy were seen for open-weight models whereas proprietary models showed only marginal gains. In error analysis, top-performing models exhibited highly concordant failure patterns, suggesting shared limitations on challenging cases. Frontier LLMs exhibit substantial specialist hematology knowledge across diverse subspecialist domains and clinical skill sets. Yet, despite high accuracy on board-style questions in hematology, continuous expert-on-the-loop output monitoring is paramount.

Antimicrobial resistance is a public health challenge, driving the need for rapid, cost-effective diagnostic support tools. Artificial intelligence (AI) may enable prediction of susceptibility to untested antibiotics from known susceptibility results, but prospective clinical validation is required before routine use. We evaluated an AI-based decision support method, trained on invasive isolates from the European Surveillance System (TESSy), for prediction of antibiotic susceptibility in clinical Escherichia coli urine isolates. The evaluation included 99 E. coli isolates from urine samples with diversity in age, sex, and antibiotic susceptibility. Predictions were evaluated for 14 antibiotics using patient metadata and susceptibility results for 4-8 antibiotics as input. Prediction uncertainty was handled using conformal prediction, allowing abstention when confidence was insufficient. EUCAST disk diffusion test results were used as reference and genomic sequence data was used to explore mechanisms of the AI performance. Without conformal prediction, 84% of predictions were correct when susceptibility results of six antibiotics were used to predict susceptibility to eight additional antibiotics. Across all predictions generated using susceptibility results for six antibiotics as input, the major and very major error rates were 19% and 12%, respectively. Prediction errors varied between antibiotics and were associated with certain phenotypic and genotypic resistance patterns. Conformal prediction reduced errors but increased abstentions; at confidence levels of 90%, 95%, and 97.5%, the model abstained in 9.6%, 14%, and 22% of instances. The method showed promising performance, but its clinical use remains limited and may require diagnostic data beyond susceptibility test results and demographic variables.

Standard polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are constructed based on additive genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics. Nonlinear machine learning methods have been increasingly applied to construct PRSs directly from individual-level data, with the aim of improving predictive performance over standard PRSs through their ability to model non-additive genetic effects. However, their superiority across studies has been inconsistent, and the conditions under which they provide meaningful improvements remain unclear. We combined theoretical analysis, simulations and a real-world application to investigate when two widely used nonlinear machine learning methods, random forest and XGBoost, outperform standard PRSs. Theoretical analysis showed that standard PRSs can implicitly capture part of the genetic variance attributable to nonadditive genetic effects through their contributions to marginal SNP effects, thereby losing less information than commonly assumed. Although nonlinear models have a higher theoretical potential, their greater flexibility incurs a bias-variance trade-off that can limit predictive gains at finite sample sizes. Simulations showed that XGBoost outperformed the standard PRS only when the genetic architecture involves a sufficiently large proportion of interaction genetic variance concentrated across relatively few interaction effects and large training samples were available. Random forest consistently underperformed the standard PRS. In an application to ischemic heart disease prediction using UK Biobank data, XGBoost showed no meaningful improvement in predictive performance over the standard PRS, whereas random forest again performed worse. Together, these findings suggest that nonlinear machine learning do not uniformly outperform standard PRSs; rather, their relative performance depends jointly on genetic architecture and training sample size. Our study helps to reconcile the inconsistent results reported across previous studies and provides a framework for identifying settings in which more complex PRS models are likely to be beneficial.

Prognostic models in oncology are developed one cancer at a time, from that cancer's own labelled outcomes, and fail where prognostic information is scarcest. Rare cancers account for roughly a fifth of diagnoses and most paediatric malignancies, yet seldom supply enough events for a reliable time-to-event model. We therefore asked whether a representation learned without outcome labels can supply what those cohorts cannot. A Transformer encoder was pretrained by masked field-value modelling on 9425135 tumour records from the SEER 17 registries, diagnosed in 2000 to 2023. Only diagnosis-time fields passing a fail-closed coding-verification gate were admitted, and each record was emitted as an era-specific and a harmonised view, keeping two decades of recoding auditable. The encoder was then frozen and read by a linear Cox head for overall survival. Nine rare cancers were removed from the pretraining corpus entirely, each requiring an independent pretraining run. On a sealed test partition, all nine exceeded an architecture-identical random frozen encoder in Harrell concordance by +0.0034 to +0.0368, every lower confidence limit above zero. At 256 labelled patients, all 67 cancers favoured the pretrained representation over budget-matched Cox regression, median difference +0.0283. The advantage was bounded: given the entire training set, Cox regression was favoured in seven of nine rare cancers. The encoder did not outperform a field-frequency baseline on its own objective, so upstream reconstruction did not predict downstream transfer. Outcome-agnostic registry pretraining carries prognostic signal into cancers it has never seen, and is most useful where labels are fewest, without establishing clinical utility.

Background. Videolaryngoscopy still requires adjuncts or hyperangulated rescue in a clinically important minority, and bedside screening discriminates modestly. Point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) of the anterior airway is a promising alternative, but existing prediction models are opaque or assume a pre-specified functional form. We developed and internally validated a parsimonious, fully disclosed POCUS risk equation whose form is recovered from data and whose structural properties are machine-checked by formal proof - to our knowledge the first formally verified clinical risk predictor - following TRIPOD+AI 2024. Methods. In a prospective single-centre, single-operator cohort of 259 adults undergoing elective videolaryngoscopy (no-Easy airway 68/259, 26.3%), Sequentially Thresholded Least Squares with bootstrap stability selection (B=300) screened a 71-term library of nine POCUS features and retained a seven-term logistic equation; a two-term bootstrap-stable model was pre-specified as robustness analysis. Internal validation used 5x10 repeated cross-validation plus temporal and device hold-outs, with pre-specified overfitting and optimism assessments. Five behavioural properties of the deployed equation were machine-checked in Lean 4. Results. Two interactions met the |c|/sigma_c>2 stability criterion: skin-to-epiglottis x skin-to-hyoid-bone distance and tongue volume x sagittal tongue area. The seven-term equation reached a 5x10 cross-validated C-statistic of 0.966 (optimism-corrected 0.968) and held across temporal and device hold-outs (0.94-0.97). Calibration-in-the-large matched prevalence, with cross-validated slope 0.90 attenuating to 0.625 out-of-time; standard recalibration restored 0.92 without loss of discrimination. The pre-specified two-term robustness model reproduced this performance (C-statistic 0.964-0.968; events-per-parameter 34; shrinkage 0.99), confirming the result is not an artefact of the screening stage. Net benefit over a clinical baseline was positive across 10-50% thresholds. All five Lean 4 theorems compiled without sorry. Conclusions. A sparse, formally verified POCUS equation predicts difficult videolaryngoscopy with high internally validated discrimination and quantified, modest overfitting. Because the equation was developed in a single-operator cohort and its inputs are operator-dependent, external validation requires prior harmonisation of the measurement protocol and operator credentialing.

Background Understanding the mechanisms underlying brain aging and age-related pathological changes is essential for advancing brain health research. Our group previously developed a mechanistic mathematical model of healthy brain, Chamberland et al. (2024) that integrates key biological processes involved in normal aging, from which Alzheimer's disease (AD) related changes may emerge naturally. Objectives To characterize and validate this brain model by evaluating its sensitivity, calibrating its parameters, and assessing generalizability in independent populations. Methods The model represents the evolution of key biological processes associated with brain aging, including amyloid beta (A{beta}), tau pathologies, neuroinflammation, and neuronal death. After identifying the 30 most influential parameters, we calibrated the model using cognitively normal (CN) participants from the AD Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database (n = 211) by minimizing a loss function composed of three outcomes (AB) plaques, tau tangles, and neuronal density). The calibrated model was then applied to the UK Biobank cohort (n = 35,899) of normal controls (aged 44-82 years). The effects of sex and APOE were evaluated using stratified simulations. Results Parameter calibration significantly reduced the prediction errors for A{beta} and tau. Neuronal density predictions showed strong agreement in the UK Biobank cohort. The variance decomposition identified APOE status as a major contributor to variability in A{beta}. Conclusion Our validated brain health model links mechanistic pathways with population data and reproduces neuronal density patterns in an independent cohort. These findings support its use as a framework for studying brain aging and investigating how Alzheimer's disease related pathological changes may emerge with aging.

Accurate epigenetic age prediction from DNA methylation profiles is intrinsically high-dimensional, creating a need for parsimonious models that preserve predictive performance while reducing the number of assayed cytosine-phosphate-guanine (CpG) loci. This study introduces MOSurvivor, a population-based multi-objective search framework that jointly optimizes a weight-threshold CpG selector and eight XGBoost hyperparameters. Experiments used the GSE40279 whole-blood cohort (656 individuals profiled on the Illumina HumanMethylation450 platform). After retaining 1,000 age-correlated CpGs, five strategies were evaluated on the same 30 seeded 80:20 train/test splits: fixed-parameter XGBoost using all 1,000 CpGs, random search, a genetic algorithm, particle swarm optimization, and MOSurvivor. Internal fitness was estimated using three-fold cross-validation on each training set. Across the 30 held-out test sets, MOSurvivor achieved a mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.149 {+/-} 0.300 years, root mean squared error of 5.545 {+/-} 0.392 years, and R2 of 0.855{+/-} 0.027 while retaining 211.6 {+/-} 54.8 CpGs. Relative to full-feature XGBoost (MAE 4.095 {+/-} 0.285 years), MOSurvivor reduced the feature set by 78.8% at an MAE increase of only 0.054 years (1.3%). Paired Wilcoxon tests found no significant accuracy difference between MOSurvivor and any comparator (all unadjusted p > 0.05; all Holm-adjusted p [≥] 0.476). The most recurrent locus, cg16867657, appeared in 29 runs, whereas mean pairwise Jaccard similarity was 0.124, indicating a small stable core embedded in multiple near-equivalent feature subsets. MOSurvivor thus offers a competitive accuracy-parsimony trade-off rather than superior absolute accuracy. External validation and leakage-free nested feature preselection remain necessary before biological or clinical translation. Keywords: epigenetic clock, DNA methylation, feature selection, multi-objective optimization, XGBoost, metaheuristics, biological aging.

Reputation plays a major role in supporting cooperation among unrelated individuals through indirect reciprocity. By helping others, individuals build a good personal reputation and receive greater benefits from future partners. Most models of indirect reciprocity assume that a person's reputation reflects only their own behaviour. Yet in many societies, people are also judged by their family's reputation. How family reputation affects the evolution of cooperation, and whether reliance on it can itself evolve, remain unclear. Here we show that reputation inheritance expands the conditions under which indirect reciprocity favours cooperation, increasing helping and favouring greater reciprocity. Greater reciprocity in turn favours stronger reliance on inherited reputation, creating a positive feedback that stabilises cooperation, especially when interactions are infrequent or personal behaviour is difficult to observe. This feedback arises because cooperation generates future benefits both for the individual, through their personal reputation, and for their descendants, through inherited reputation. Reputation inheritance thereby provides a route via which kin selection and reciprocity, often treated as alternative explanations for cooperation, can reinforce one another. Our model helps explain why family-based reputation occurs across diverse human societies and provides an evolutionary framework for studying phenomena organised around family standing, including kin-based institutions, feuds between families and honour-based violence within them.

The 17th Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, announced on 15 May 2026, was attributed to Bundibugyo ebolavirus (BDBV). Although case isolation is the main control strategy, its effectiveness is compromised when patients escape isolation facilities before recovery. Between 14 May and 17 June 2026, 175 individuals reportedly left isolation facilities without formal discharge across Ituri Province. We assessed how this "isolation leakage" affects community transmission. We refined the SEIHFR framework to distinguish undetected community infections, detected but not-yet-isolated cases, isolated individuals, leakage, funeral-associated transmission, and removals. Using Bayesian inference, we fitted the model to daily Ituri surveillance data, escapee counts, and isolation census records. We estimated the leakage rate, reporting and detection probabilities, and the transmission rate, while fixing other parameters based on the BDBV literature. The model reproduced confirmed cases, deaths, discharges, and escapees. We estimated R_0=3.67 (95% HDI: 2.0-5.7), a leakage rate of {rho} {approx} 0.034 day^-1 (0.022-0.051), and high contact-tracing-driven detection (p_d {approx} 0.91-0.99). Leakage increased the detection-dependent reproduction number [R](p_d) from approximately 3.2 to above 5. Eliminating leakage reduced cumulative infections by about one-third, from 1,120 to 764, while the minimum detection level required for control increased from p_d [≥] 0.73 without leakage to p_d [≥] 0.87 at the fitted leakage rate. Shortening time to isolation prevented the most infections (73.4%; 59-84), followed by reducing leakage (29.7%; 14-52) and re-isolating escapees (12.6%; 6-24). Delaying leakage reduction until week 4 reduced its benefit from about 27% to below 2%. Isolation leakage represents a major transmission pathway that has until now gone largely unmeasured. While rapid initiation of isolation is highly beneficial, it cannot compensate for permeable isolation; therefore, early, community-driven efforts to control leakage, embedded within a multilayered response, are critical.

The study of evolution between species (phylogenetics) and the study of evolution within a species (population genetics) are highly related, as the same biological mechanisms are fundamental to both fields. Although both have been studied for a long time, their joint study in a unified setting has been prevented by the different time scales they consider and the different data types they employ. A similar discrepancy holds for their whole-genome specializations, comparative genomics and pangenomics. Two active areas in these fields are genome rearrangement studies and graphical pangenomics, respectively. Since the emergence of graphical pangenomics, these have existed as separate fields, despite observations that central data structures representing genomic variants in both fields are highly similar. While there exists a wealth of theoretical results for various rearrangement models in comparative genomics, the application to pangenomic data is hampered by the limitations of rearrangement problem formulations. On the practical side, pangenomes typically contain too many individual genomes for classical problems, such as the often NP-hard parsimony problems, to be solved, or for all-vs-all comparisons using rearrangement distances to be performed. On the theoretical side, some assumptions in the formulation of rearrangement problems, such as the assumption of an underlying tree, are inadequate for many pangenomes. In this work, we propose the Complete Ancestral Reconstruction for Pangenomes (CARP) problem, which overcomes these limitations while retaining intuitive relationships to both classical rearrangement problems and pangenome graphs.